Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Monday, March 20, 2006
The commercial paper market (1-6 months maturities) has a positive curve. This bodes well for the stock market.
2 comments:
Anonymous
said...
The 20 year and 30 year bond is inverted, I'd like your comment. Also, would you wait for all conditions on page 84 of your book before reducing equity exposure? I liked you book.
Dear Anonymous, You are right to take note of the inversion between the 20-yr. and the 30-yr. While this is not too serious for the economy, it does suggest slower GDP growth.
As to page 84; the answer is "no." Swap into fixed-income any time that the ten-year exceeds 10%; that is the long-term expected return on stocks.
The other 3 conditions tend to occur together because Fed tightening causes short-term rates to increase and a flight to quality (wide credit spreads). Any one of these conditions can cause temporary weakness in stocks and be a signal to reduce equity exposure. (Quality spreads widened during the summers of 1987 and 1998 before their respective crashes.)
Delighted that you liked my book...tell your friends! Deborah
2 comments:
The 20 year and 30 year bond is inverted, I'd like your comment. Also, would you wait for all conditions on page 84 of your book before reducing equity exposure? I liked you book.
Dear Anonymous, You are right to take note of the inversion between the 20-yr. and the 30-yr. While this is not too serious for the economy, it does suggest slower GDP growth.
As to page 84; the answer is "no." Swap into fixed-income any time that the ten-year exceeds 10%; that is the long-term expected return on stocks.
The other 3 conditions tend to occur together because Fed tightening causes short-term rates to increase and a flight to quality (wide credit spreads). Any one of these conditions can cause temporary weakness in stocks and be a signal to reduce equity exposure. (Quality spreads widened during the summers of 1987 and 1998 before their respective crashes.)
Delighted that you liked my book...tell your friends! Deborah
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