Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Commercial paper yield curves are negative from 1-7 days. This suggests a sluggish stock market for a few days.
5 comments:
Anonymous
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The 3 month and 10 year are now only about 18 basis points apart. If the Fed hiked once more and the 10 year yield kept dropping because of slowdown fears we could invert. Does this signal that people are expecting a slowdown? Do you still think we'll muddle through without a recession?
Yes, I still think we are safe from a recession. If nothing more, foreign central banks are raising their rates and will provide competition for our 10-year note. Our notes may become cheaper and our curve steeper. :)
The 3 month is already slightly above the 10Y. Is it time to get out of equities and even go short or should we ignore the signal this time? Won´t raising rates by foreign central banks slow down growth and damage companies results?
As of 9:39 on Tuesday, July 18 Bloomberg reports that both the 3-month and the 10-year are 5.11%. The good news is that there is no inversion (yet) and that the Fed just added three times its usual daily cash infusion.
The curve has not inverted from 3-months to 10-years if you look at "yields" rather than discounted prices. Bills trade both ways.
5 comments:
Deb,
The 3 month and 10 year are now only about 18 basis points apart. If the Fed hiked once more and the 10 year yield kept dropping because of slowdown fears we could invert. Does this signal that people are expecting a slowdown? Do you still think we'll muddle through without a recession?
Brian in NYC
Dear Brian,
Yes, I still think we are safe from a recession. If nothing more, foreign central banks are raising their rates and will provide competition for our 10-year note. Our notes may become cheaper and our curve steeper. :)
Best,
Deb
Deb,
The 3 month is already slightly above the 10Y. Is it time to get out of equities and even go short or should we ignore the signal this time? Won´t raising rates by foreign central banks slow down growth and damage companies results?
Thanks and regards.
Miguel.
Dear Miguel,
As of 9:39 on Tuesday, July 18 Bloomberg reports that both the 3-month and the 10-year are 5.11%. The good news is that there is no inversion (yet) and that the Fed just added three times its usual daily cash infusion.
The curve has not inverted from 3-months to 10-years if you look at "yields" rather than discounted prices. Bills trade both ways.
All my best,
Deb
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