Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
The VIX has peaked and both the put/call ratio and the S&P's MACD signal "buy." Perhaps the 3-mo./10-yr. spread will normalize soon so we can become aggressive investors again.
3 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Deb,
the 3m,6m,1y have been inverted for a while now so even if the 3m/10y normalize, won't it still be too early to buy? Here's 7/24 for example:
3m 6m 1Y 5.1 5.27 5.21
That 6 month remains stubbornly higher than the 1 year. At least, according to the Fed's "constant maturity" data.
Hmmm..I've been doing alot of reading and studying..including your very interesting book. I've also been looking at other books that examine timing the market using seasonality. We are coming up on August and September..the worst 2 months for the stock market since 1950 (this is as far back as the data went that i was using..for the sp500). In fact, over the last 56 yeaers, September has average negative returns and August has averaged near 0 returns. However, next year will be the best year of the pres cycle and nov/dec/jan are the best seasonal months...so if curve normalizes..i may buy near end of oct or beginning of Nov.
3 comments:
Deb,
the 3m,6m,1y have been inverted for a while now so even if the 3m/10y normalize, won't it still be too early to buy? Here's 7/24 for example:
3m 6m 1Y
5.1 5.27 5.21
That 6 month remains stubbornly higher than the 1 year. At least, according to the Fed's "constant maturity" data.
Brian
Hello Deb,
Hmmm..I've been doing alot of reading and studying..including your very interesting book. I've also been looking at other books that examine timing the market using seasonality. We are coming up on August and September..the worst 2 months for the stock market since 1950 (this is as far back as the data went that i was using..for the sp500). In fact, over the last 56 yeaers, September has average negative returns and August has averaged near 0 returns. However, next year will be the best year of the pres cycle and nov/dec/jan are the best seasonal months...so if curve normalizes..i may buy near end of oct or beginning of Nov.
Absolutely right! Wait for money market rates to normalize.
Also, the Presidential cycle does suggest that 2007 should be a good year and that this fall may be a great buying opportunity.
Best regards,
Deb
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