Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Usually, as we head into a recession, the 10-yr./30-yr. spread is negative. With that spread at +13 BP, the Fed's simplest GDP formula suggests that in 9-12 months the economy will grow 1.64%.
2 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Wouldn't growth that slow hurt the overall stock market? Record profits are priced into equities . . We now have 6 consecutive weeks of a 3mo/10yr inversion. Last time was July 2000. But the 10/30 is not inverted and bond quality spreads are still not wide. What gives?
Looks like foreigners (especially Chinese) are supporting our long-term bond market. As Europeans tighten their money supply, their rates will increase and provide competition. Money may flow out of US bonds and cause our longer rates to increase.
2 comments:
Wouldn't growth that slow hurt the overall stock market? Record profits are priced into equities . . We now have 6 consecutive weeks of a 3mo/10yr inversion. Last time was July 2000. But the 10/30 is not inverted and bond quality spreads are still not wide. What gives?
Brian
Looks like foreigners (especially Chinese) are supporting our long-term bond market. As Europeans tighten their money supply, their rates will increase and provide competition. Money may flow out of US bonds and cause our longer rates to increase.
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