Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Monday, January 22, 2007
Odd-lot shorts have been high for the past few days. This often preceeds an uptick in the S&P.
5 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Deb, I heard a Forbes columnist say we should look at the World Yield Curves rather than US Yield Curve as a signficant indicator due to the speed and ease of capital borrowed across the globe. Your thoughts?
I notice that in today's Barron's (01-29-07 issue), on page 8, M. Santoli notes that the Junk Bond Yield sread above that of the 3 yr. Treasury is near a two year low. This low level is similar to that level which preceeded a 7.5% decline in early 2005, ...the 6% decline in summer and fall of 2005, ...and the 8% decline springtime decline in 2006. He notes a low every 6-8 months has occured, with next low due aroun March of 2007.
I was just wondering how you reconciled this yield type information with your other indicators such as the pick up in odd lot shorts, or the ordering up additional troops for the war, etc.
Specifically, at this time based on the yield spread between junk and short term treasuries, do you view the risk of an intermediate term setback as high?
Federal Reserve economists compare high-yield bonds to the ten-year Treasury because they all have a similar time to maturity. This yield is narrow. I will worry aboaut an intermediate-term setback when that spread widens quickly as it did in the summer of 1987. Please refer to the chapter in my book on the subject.
5 comments:
Deb,
I heard a Forbes columnist say we should look at the World Yield Curves rather than US Yield Curve as a signficant indicator due to the speed and ease of capital borrowed across the globe.
Your thoughts?
Thanks
Sounds good to me...where is this World Yield Curve?
Sorry, I don't know.
Hello Deborah,
I notice that in today's Barron's (01-29-07 issue), on page 8, M. Santoli notes that the Junk Bond Yield sread above that of the 3 yr. Treasury is near a two year low. This low level is similar to that level which preceeded a 7.5% decline in early 2005, ...the 6% decline in summer and fall of 2005, ...and the 8% decline springtime decline in 2006. He notes a low every 6-8 months has occured, with next low due aroun March of 2007.
I was just wondering how you reconciled this yield type information with your other indicators such as the pick up in odd lot shorts, or the ordering up additional troops for the war, etc.
Specifically, at this time based on the yield spread between junk and short term treasuries, do you view the risk of an intermediate term setback as high?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Jim P.
Dear Jim,
Federal Reserve economists compare high-yield bonds to the ten-year
Treasury because they all have a similar time to maturity. This yield is narrow. I will worry aboaut an intermediate-term setback when that spread widens quickly as it did in the summer of 1987. Please refer to the chapter in my book on the subject.
All my best,
Deb
Post a Comment