Friday, March 16, 2007

The Fed funds rate is 5.29% and, therefore, higher than its target. Recent (enormous) additions of new cash have not been sufficient to create "ease." Not good for stocks in the short-term.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

If I understand you correctly, The increase in new cash has not satisfied the demand at the banks and brokerage firms there desire for more cash pushes the FED funds rate up to 5.29%. Correct?
So the liquidity(excess cash) that supported the markets rally may be drying up putting downward pressure on stocks. Correct?
Anonymous

Anonymous said...

You know Deb, if you just look at the historical data it's not uncommon for the federal funds rate to be over the target rate by a smigin. Are you sure THIS is the reason stocks don't look so good in the short term? If you think the fed rate over target is really correlated, it would be nice if you included the correlation with your statement.

Deborah said...

Dear Anonymous One,
Correct...or the liquidity may jut be going into the ten-year note.

Dear Anonymous Two,
The usual scenario during a steep market decline is for the Fed to inject massive funds and for the rate to decline below its target. This time, the Fed did not add enough money to do so. I don't see the strong support that we did on 9/11, in 1998 and 1987. The Fed seems willing to tolerate a little market correction.

Thanks for writing,
Deb