Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
The Dow's MACD lines have converged. Let's hope they move up and keep this rally going.
12 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Deb, I'm surprised you didn't mention that the 3 month/ten year treasuries are now normal. As I recall, that's your number one buying signal. Did I miss something?
Deb, Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing. On Yahoo the 3-mo. (^IRX) = 4.69 and the 10-yr. (^TNX) = 4.71. The ^IRX is called the 13-week Treasury Bill and the ^TNX is called the Ten Year Treasury Note.
If I'm looking at the wrong thing then where can I find the right thing?
I don't know about the MACD, but I am seeing very favorable sentiment survey results,...lots of bearishness, which from a contrary perspective is bullish.
Just today, the lowrisk.com survey posted only 23% Bulls, 54% Bears, and 23% Neutral. That is an incredible slant considering we are at or near new highs in the Dow and S&P500.
Also found these charts from Mark Young interesting:
This particular MACD cross is the sell signal of one of simplest and most effective mechanical trading systems called "The Best Six Months" strategy. It generates only two trades per year, the buy typically occurs sometime in late September and the sell in April or early May. This strategy is outlined in "Stock Traders Almanac Stock Traders Almanac see the alerts section
The S&P 500 cross over occurred 5/10 and the DOW crossed on 5/15.
If you need me, I'll be in RIO, see you sometime in September.
Deb, I read your book (a couple times). The conclusion I drew is that we should have been out of the market these last 12 months because the yield curve is inverted. Yet, the S&P 500 has gained ~20% for the same period. How do you account for the disparity?
The yield curve inverting is not a sell signal alone, though it may be a precursor to a sell signal. The bond quality spread (high-yield/ten-year spread) must be looked at, and they have not triggered a sell signal yet. Even though the yield curve has inverted, rates have stayed low, so the rally from 2003 continues. The yield curve inverting is a signal to be a bit more careful, and be ready to take action when other signals trigger.
It's been a long time "conundrum".. see for example http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/111506.htm or what you get with http://www.google.com/custom?hl=en&lr=&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&q=yield+conundrum
12 comments:
Deb,
I'm surprised you didn't mention that the 3 month/ten year treasuries are now normal. As I recall, that's your number one buying signal. Did I miss something?
I wish that were true!
The 3-mo. = 4.83 and the 10-yr. = 4.71 fpr a 12 BP inversion. Perhaps you were looking at the bill's discount rate.
Deb
Deb,
Maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing. On Yahoo the 3-mo. (^IRX) = 4.69 and the 10-yr. (^TNX) = 4.71. The ^IRX is called the 13-week Treasury Bill and the ^TNX is called the Ten Year Treasury Note.
If I'm looking at the wrong thing then where can I find the right thing?
try looking at WSJ Market Data Center.
Hello Deb,
I don't know about the MACD, but I am seeing very favorable sentiment survey results,...lots of bearishness, which from a contrary perspective is bullish.
Just today, the lowrisk.com survey posted only 23% Bulls, 54% Bears, and 23% Neutral. That is an incredible slant considering we are at or near new highs in the Dow and S&P500.
Also found these charts from Mark Young interesting:
http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=1894907
Thanks for the sharing of ideas.
Best Regards, Jim P.
The link above did not print fully.
Sentiment charts can be seen at:
http://www.technicalwatch.com/
see the post there titled:
This Bear Cave a Bit Crowded?
Jim
This particular MACD cross is the sell signal of one of simplest and most effective mechanical trading systems called "The Best Six Months" strategy. It generates only two trades per year, the buy typically occurs sometime in late September and the sell in April or early May. This strategy is outlined in "Stock Traders Almanac
Stock Traders Almanac
see the alerts section
The S&P 500 cross over occurred 5/10 and the DOW crossed on 5/15.
If you need me, I'll be in RIO, see you sometime in September.
Deborah,
beside BAA grade, do you have any reference where I can get high-yield (junk) bonds data?
Can't find anything..
Thanks,
Franco
Deb,
I read your book (a couple times). The conclusion I drew is that we should have been out of the market these last 12 months because the yield curve is inverted. Yet, the S&P 500 has gained ~20% for the same period. How do you account for the disparity?
The yield curve inverting is not a sell signal alone, though it may be a precursor to a sell signal. The bond quality spread (high-yield/ten-year spread) must be looked at, and they have not triggered a sell signal yet. Even though the yield curve has inverted, rates have stayed low, so the rally from 2003 continues. The yield curve inverting is a signal to be a bit more careful, and be ready to take action when other signals trigger.
It's been a long time "conundrum"..
see for example http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2006/111506.htm
or what you get with
http://www.google.com/custom?hl=en&lr=&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&q=yield+conundrum
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