Friday, June 01, 2007

As Kumbu noted in his (her?) comment yesterday, the 3-mo./10-yr. spread finally normalized. The NY Fed's article last summer says that this is an important indicator: newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci12-5.pdf.

6 comments:

Kumbu said...

His. Thanks for the pdf link.

Deborah said...

Dear Kumbu,
The Fed paper is quite long, but the summary at the end is excellent.
Deb

Jim said...

Hello Deborah, and Kumbu,

I found the following historic study to be worthwhile and thought you might as well. Regards, Jim P.

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=1934439

Deborah said...

Dear Jim, What are UD and McSum? Deb

Jim said...

Hello Deborah,

The McClellan Summation Index is sometimes referred to as "McSum".

It is often plotted for NYSE Advances and Declines (A/D), and for NYSE Up and Down Volume (U/D).

The McSum indicators often provide an early warning in loss of momentum or confirmation that money flows are still healthy for the intermediate term.

I usually view the McSum charts posted at TechnicalWatch.com discussion board, and they are often posted there by "Mortiz".

Thanks for the sharing of ideas.

Best Regards, Jim

Jim said...

Deborah,

As of 06-08 $NYAD and $NYUD charts with MCSUM plots is posted at:

http://www.technicalwatch.com/cum07/
cum060807.htm

http://www.technicalwatch.com/cum07/cum060807.htm

Mostly indicating a pullback in an uptrend, as opposed to a reversal of
trend. Best Regards, Jim P.