A reader comments that the Federal Reserve graphs of commercial paper are hard to read. Try going directly to their site:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/
You will see that, while the curves are all negative, their quality spreads continue to narrow. All is not lost.
3 comments:
Deborah,
I too have read your book Timing The Market, and I am trying to use your approach. One thing I noticed this week is that the VIX peaked earlier this week at about the same level as back in November. Based on the "fear level" peaking, I view this as a good sign that we may have bottomed (even if the short term yield curve is still inverted). Do you agree?
Dear Anonymous,
I agree that the VIX hovering around 30 is a positive sign. There may be a short-term flip here.
Longer-term, however, is still risky. The money market is still yield curve is still inverted, and that's a problem. That may straighten itself out pretty soon,and then we'll be OK.
I'm not as bearish as the rest of the world. I had 4 phone calls today from local reporters asking for employment advice for the next recession. I think we'll avoid a recession until the new administration comes into office.
Great question!
Deborah
Brava, Deb. M
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