Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Short term, the outlook for US equity is good:
  • the yield curve is strongly positive (341 basis points from 3 mo. - 10 yrs.)
  • some new workers are finding jobs
  • the VIX is trending down 
  • the put/call ratio is over 1.00 (1.20)
  • odd-lot shorts are increasing
Longer term, however, the same fundamental problems remain: governments of developed countries have too much debt. European banks are less willing to lend as evidenced by the increase in the three-month Libor-OIS spread.

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