Tuesday, September 20, 2011

The S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.13% exceeds the 1.95% yield on the 10-year note. On a quarter-end basis, this has happened only 20 times since 1953. The  following 12 months, the S&P 500 rose by an average 20%.

The past doesn't always repeat itself, and this bond market is heavily influenced by government purchases. However, this may be a good time to buy stocks.

2 comments:

Javier Viana said...

Thanks Mrs. Weir for your insights,

I really appreciate them. I would like to know your take on this post by contrarian Mr. Mark Hulbert:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-model-more-bullish-than-in-decades-2011-09-20?siteid=rss&utm_source=tf

Thanks again

Deborah said...

Fancisco,

Thank you for asking this important question.

The Fed model depends on forcast earnings for the S&P 500 Index. These estimated earnings are divided by the price of the index and compared the the yield on the US 10-yr. note.

Mr. Hulbert feels that the Fed model is often wrong.

My view is that forecast earnings are often wrong and, therefore, may compromise the Fed model.

Thanks for asking,
Deb