Go to the Amazon.com link below for TIMING THE MARKET by Deborah Weir (Wiley, 2005).
Email: DebWeir@WealthStrategies.bz
Take her class at the NY Institute of Finance: nyif.com/courses/fimk_1014.html.
My nightly recalculation of the yield curve shows a "Normal" curve albeit a hockey stick to about the 3yr.
Back of the envelope projected GDP, one year out...4.00%
Either my numbers are off, or the market is in an oversold position, because 4% GDP growth does not look recessionary to me. Not great, but not recessionary either. Now I understand why the fed may not cut rates any further.
So what gives? Is there hidden inflation the "eats" the 4.00% GDP? It looks like a turn around can be expected by Q3 of 2008. Sitting administrations inflate the economy going into a recession after all. This looks perfectly timed for November.
3 comments:
My nightly recalculation of the yield curve shows a "Normal" curve albeit a hockey stick to about the 3yr.
Back of the envelope projected GDP, one year out...4.00%
Either my numbers are off, or the market is in an oversold position, because 4% GDP growth does not look recessionary to me. Not great, but not recessionary either. Now I understand why the fed may not cut rates any further.
So what gives? Is there hidden inflation the "eats" the 4.00% GDP? It looks like a turn around can be expected by Q3 of 2008. Sitting administrations inflate the economy going into a recession after all. This looks perfectly timed for November.
Who is wrong? Me? or the Market?
Correction: ...Sitting administrations inflate the economy going into an ELECTION, not a recession.
Dear Kumbu,
I think that YOU are right and that the market is wrong! I especially agree with your political analysis.
The only problem is that the market could get even more wrong!
Deborah
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